Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 011023
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY, COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE FIRST STAGE OF THE COOLING TREND HAS OCCURRED WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS LINGERING IN PARTS OF WESTERN NV. THE SECOND STAGE
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE WEST COAST
MOVES INTO WESTERN NV BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY LEADING TO BANDS OF SNOW OR
GRAUPEL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY THEN EXTENDS INTO A SMALL
PORTION OF FAR WESTERN NV MAINLY NORTH OF RENO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WHILE SNOW OR SNOW PELLET ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND
LIMITED TO UNPAVED SURFACES, MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA INCLUDING HIGHWAY 395 NORTH OF RENO COULD SEE RAPID
DROPS IN VISIBILITY WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

THE FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY LATER IN THE EVENING, WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS, NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WE ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SOUTH OF THE CARSON SINK ACROSS
FALLON AND INTO MINERAL COUNTY WHERE POOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 95
AND 50.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S, WHICH COULD PUT NEWLY PLANTED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND EXPOSED SPRINKLER/IRRIGATION PIPES AT RISK OF
FREEZING. AS FLAT RIDGE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, HIGHS
WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, CIRRUS DECK IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH
WHERE VIEWING CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE POOR. FOR THE RENO-TAHOE
AREA, VIEWING CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL AS CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE, BUT MAY BE THIN ENOUGH AT TIMES TO ALLOW AT LEAST A
PARTIAL VIEW OF THE EVENT. THE BEST VIEWING CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SET TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF POOR MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT, THE PAST
FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE
SPREAD ISN`T AS LARGE, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE FIRST WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF EACH WAVE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE ON SUNDAY, DUE TO THE GREATER
THERMAL DIFFERENCE AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH
A WEAKER GRADIENT IN PLACE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AS
SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
THEN LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THE WAVES. HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS, BUT KEPT POPS MORE BROAD-BRUSHED AT
THIS POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES AS THE EVENT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. THERE IS NO ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE TAP,
SO AM NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A HUGE PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, BUT
WITH THE ANEMIC AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE REGION HAS SEEN THIS WINTER,
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

THE ORIGIN OF THE MAIN LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MEANS THAT THESE
WILL BE COLD SYSTEMS AND SNOW LEVELS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 4000-5000 FEET. THEREFORE, IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. SPRING IS A SEASON OF WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE WEATHER
AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. AFTER HAVING AN EXTREMELY WARM AND DRY
MARCH, WE ARE STARTING APRIL OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV TODAY BRINGING A
15-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THIS WILL LOWER CIGS AND INCREASE ICING POTENTIAL,
BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS MORNING, OUTSIDE OF MONO COUNTY
WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS, BUT WILL THEN TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KHTH-KNFL-KLOL LINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH OBSCURING TERRAIN. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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