Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281302
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
902 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES TODAY. MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERN SYSTEM PASSES. UPPER LEVEL
LOW SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A RARITY THIS MONTH...NO RAIN FORECAST...THOUGH AT 08Z A SPRINKLE
MAY BE SPOTTED TO OUR N...NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR OUR COLDEST LOWLAND COUNTIES IN SE
OHIO. MOST READINGS THERE ARE IN THE MID 30S WITH NOT MANY CLOUDS.

IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF...PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER
MAINLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST FLOW TRIES TO
ADVECT THESE SW...BUT WITH THINNING MOISTURE...THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN EVAPORATING ON THEIR TRIP S AND SW.

THE LAST OF THE 850 MB COOL POCKET LINGERINGS OVER CENTRAL WV
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR AT DAWN COULD SEE SOME
REGENERATION OF CU 12Z TO 16Z.

PEACEFUL EVENING PICTURED. ONLY BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO
DICKENSON COUNTY VA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. WITH LIGHT WIND AND NOT MANY CLOUDS FIGURED.  TRIED
TO STAY ON LOW SIDE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO CONCENTRATE ON DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SOUTH WITH. FOLLOWED THE MODELS AND TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE
HIGHER POPS...AND TAKING LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SECOND
FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. NAM/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH THE LOW LOCATION ON THURSDAY MORNING OVER NE ILLINOIS AND THEN
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TN AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THEY DIFFER SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE LOW CUT OFF WHILE THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH. THE GFS STAYS WITH THE CUTOFF...BUT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER
EAST ON THE OVERALL TRACK...TAKING IT RIGHT OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON QPF AMOUNTS AND
TIMING...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO GO WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THEN HAVE POPS EXITING TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. ENDED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...THINKING WE MAY GET SOME
ADDITIONAL SUN WITH THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING FARTHER SOUTH. THEN
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MARKS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER...EVOLVING
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING BY DAY 7. OVERALL...500MB HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE...SO WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW POPS THAT DO NOT CLIMB HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF DID LOWER INTO
THE 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES INCLUDING CKB
TO EKN...WITH NEAR 1 THSD FT OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN CENTRAL
WV BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL
THROUGH 18Z THEN 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL MOSTLY SCATTERED.

MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CEILINGS IN CKB TO EKN VCNTY
MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BY 18Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS.
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FRIDAY MORNING OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB







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