Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 051958
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HOW MUCH OR HOW
LITTLE INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IS STILL QUESTIONABLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAKING BETTER ADVANCEMENT INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE WILL START TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET...AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET SINCE NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FEEDING
THE ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COMPARABLE TO THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST DIPPED INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREE
MILDER ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PROMISED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND A
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS OFFERED AGAIN ON THE 12Z/8AM RUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL ADD UPON THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE WE HAVE BEEN COUNTING ON FOR
ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP FIRE
CONVECTION A LITTLE SOONER...WITH GREATER COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST...AND CONTINUE BETTER COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ACT MORE AS A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY RATHER
THAN A TRUE COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT COMPLETELY
BY MIDNIGHT. THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC...
COUPLED WILL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WILL HELP HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AREAWIDE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SPOTTY DAYTIME-HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S WEST...AND THE LOW 80S EAST...WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND APPROACH THE
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE LOW WILL NOT DIRECTLY MOVE
INTO OUR AREA...IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PUSH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...MAY SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIRECTING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSELY...AS AN INLAND TRACK WILL
LIKELY PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT WORKWEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE TREND OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK
OF A LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINA COAST...POTENTIALLY PUSHING A
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH DAYTIME-HEATING
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FEED OFF OF. THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A THREAT FOR
SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD
THE LOW REMAIN OFFSHORE...FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BE REDUCED. WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE...SO THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE AFTERNOON HIGHS ALSO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO THE LOW 80S
EAST EACH DAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. INCREASED RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON SATURDAY HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PARAMETERS TROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY IS HIGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
LATEST TAF VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND FEW
STORMS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF...LOCALIZED SUB-VFR VSBYS UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES.
TONIGHT...LIGHT FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PARAMETERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED UNDER THE CORES OF
THE STRONGEST CELLS...AND THEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PARAMETERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS LOW TO
MODERATE.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN REGARDS TO THE IMPACT A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
HAVE ON THE REGION. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW CENTERED STILL OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LINE SOUTH OF WINSTON-
SALEM. THE FORMER SOLUTION...AND OTHERS LIKE IT...POSE LIMITED IF
ANY INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. THE LATTER AS A
WETTER...WINDIER...AND ONE MORE SUBJECT TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS SCENARIO STILL HAS
DAYTIME...MOUNTAIN FOCUSED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS


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