Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 060308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT LOW AND TWEAKED POPS THRU 12Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN NOW WITH A SHOWER RECENTLY AS FAR EAST
AS MANSFIELD AND STONEWALL. SO WILL KEEP 00-06 GRID FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR SHOWING A BIT OF QPF ALONG WITH NEW NAM. THE
BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OK AND
N TX AND SOME AUSTIN WAY DRIFTING MORE IN OUR DIRECTION. ALSO IN
THE WAKE RAINFALL...PARTS OF I-30 ALREADY DOWN AT OR BELOW FORECAST
NUMBERS SO THESE HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP MORE
CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY W OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND SE OK THROUGH MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE TXK
TERMINAL...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE AC/CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/WRN LA/SW AR...AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NE ACROSS
NE TX/SE OK LATE. THIS MAY YIELD SCT CONVECTION BETWEEN 06-12Z
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR...SLOWLY
SPREADING ENE INTO SW AR/NW LA BY MIDDAY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF LOW MVFR CIGS AFTER 07Z OVER E TX...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z OVER WRN LA...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. SE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S AND
INCREASE TO 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE OVER
E TX. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NWRD
THIS AFTERNOON OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION...MAINLY
OVER OUR FAR WRN EDGE OF NE TX FROM RUSK AND JACKSONVILLE NORTH
TO TYLER AND MINEOLA. MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY IS FOUND FARTHER EAST
NEAR TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY IN DEEP E TX AND FAR WRN LA. THEREFORE...
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO MID CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT DESPITE
DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND OUR
DEW POINTS HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

A SIMILAR TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR EAST...MEANING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR WRN HALF AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  66  85 /  20  30  10  20
MLU  62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  63  78  65  82 /  30  30  10  20
TXK  65  80  66  84 /  20  30  20  20
ELD  63  82  66  85 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  67  81  67  83 /  40  30  20  30
GGG  66  81  66  83 /  30  30  20  30
LFK  68  84  68  85 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15/19



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