Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 070207
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THE MOMENT.
EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE CONDITION TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH STILL NO CHANGE IN THE PRESENT WEATHER SCENARIO
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE RIDGE
ALOFT ERODES AND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS DURING THAT TIME. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SIGNIFICANTLY DRY FUELS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS INCREASED THE RISK OF FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WITH SEVERAL BRUSH/WILDFIRES BEING REPORTED TODAY. EXPECTED
THESE OVERALL DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SAHARAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED
GUSTS. AFT 07/12Z...WINDS GENERALLY WILL INCREASE...15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS NOW DOWN TO 6 FEET OR LESS...WITH MODERATE
CHOP TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM AST WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...VERY DRY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS GFS
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER TO STAY UNDER 1.3 INCHES UNTIL
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. PROBABLY NO SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW
FOR WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOONS. NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE MON AS A WAVE MAY DRAW BETTER MOISTURE FROM ITCZ IN A WAVE
CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS JUST
COMING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE BUT
IT HAS A LONG JOURNEY TO SAY IT WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS HERE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SAHARAN AIR ARRIVING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING WILL BE IN
THE MIX TOO AND REMAINS TO SEE WHETHER THAT WILL REDUCE SHOWERS
EVEN MORE.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT
LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED AS MODELS INDICATE
NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET IN IMMEDIATE AREA AND NO EVIDENCE TO
CONTRARY. WINDS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH
SO 5 TO 6 FEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...HAD INTENDED TO KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS DUE VERY DRY FUELS AND STIFF WINDS BUT LOW
HUMIDITY NEVER MATERIALIZED WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW. HUMIDITY
IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER EVEN MORE ATTM. SO CANCELLED THE RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  92 /   0   0  10  10
STT  78  87  77  87 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

15/09


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