Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 031351
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AGAIN TODAY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTO TUESDAY AND AFFORD NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. BY TUESDAY, THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH (OR POSSIBLY CLOSED
SURFACE LOW) MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAROLINAS BEFORE STALLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THUS THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MAY.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AT KECP THIS
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. STRETCHES OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   84  60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY   79  63  82  62  81 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        84  57  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10  10
ALBANY        83  57  85  60  82 /   0  10   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      83  57  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    85  57  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  79  64  82  64  82 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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