Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING REACHED TO THE
MANITOBA-ONTARIO BORDER...FLAT RIDGING WAS OVER THE GULF
REGION...AND A LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGHED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE. SURFACE - CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ANCHORED A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
STATES TO A LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS CUBA TO THE YUCATAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
JET STREAK FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEDICO.
THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH CUTS OFF AS IT SLIDES EAST TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINTAINING FLAT RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THE GULF REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH...FROM CENTRAL
FL AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING
THE THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF FL PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST.

A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SCOOTED ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MOST OF THESE HAVE SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OF EAST FL. THE BOUNDARY SETTLING IN TONIGHT THEN STALLING ALONG
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE SOME
LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND HIGHER ODDS MON... ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WARM...WITH LOWS TONIGHT APPROACHING
RECORD HIGH MINS.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COMPLEX PATTERN TO
EVOLVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER TEXAS EARLY...SLOWLY GETTING
KICKED EASTWARD AS SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MID-UPPER TROUGHINESS IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT EJECTING VORT LOBE TO PUSH FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE E
GULF AND FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL POPS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THIS EVENT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
AS IT EVOLVES.

LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS IN PLACE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND BRING A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO FLORIDA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR IN OCNL CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH BR AT LAL AND PGD BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR.
CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND HIGH INCREASE MON WITH VCNTY SHRA IN THE
MORNING FROM TPA TO PGD. WINDS CONTINUE SW...WITH GUSTS DROPPING
OFF BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAINTAIN ROBUST WINDS THIS. THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALLS...WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS/6-7 FEET WITH THE FRONT
MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCH INLAND FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN
LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  87  73  85 /  20  40  40  60
FMY  76  92  74  88 /  10  20  30  70
GIF  73  87  71  84 /  20  30  40  70
SRQ  75  85  73  84 /  20  30  40  60
BKV  71  86  67  84 /  20  40  50  60
SPG  76  86  74  82 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...69/CLOSE



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