Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262152
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. VISIBLE
AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
ALMOST ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA.
RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE STATE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HEADED TOWARD THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS CAN
BE SEEN...MAINLY OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE ONLY
REMAINING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THIS THREAT
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...ALBEIT ONLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BUILD IN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OVER
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO.

BY SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS BEYOND SATURDAY...
BUT A DRY FORECAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FOR NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING THEREAFTER.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR TUCSON THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY AROUND 86 TO
87 DEGS. NORMAL LOWS AROUND 55 TO 57 DEGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AND
ISOLATED -TSRA THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...MAINLY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL AND PORTIONS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR -SHRA/-
TSRA...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-
TSRA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFTER 27/00Z.

EXPECT BKN TO OVC CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 5-10K FT AGL.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 27/03Z...THEN WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AFT 27/03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY AND MUCH OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

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