Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 260337
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND COMMENCING DURING THE WORKWEEK. &&

.UPDATE...A POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE
RESULTED IN QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS METRO WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.35 WERE COMMON. THE OFFICIAL MEASUREMENT AT
MCCARRAN OF 0.26 INCHES SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.07 FOR
THE DATE AND EXCEEDED THE NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH.

ACTIVITY IS NOW PUSHING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND SHOULD EXIT OUR
EASTERN BORDERS LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT HAVE EASED CONSIDERABLY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AT DAGGETT AND BICYCLE LAKE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ALLOW THE WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE IF NOT A LITTLE
EARLY.

IVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL AS ADJUST CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM DEATH VALLEY N.P - BEATTY - NORTHEAST OF
RACHEL IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20-25 MPH. THAT WOULD PLACE THE LINE THROUGH THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY BETWEEN 4-6 PM AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 5 AND
7 PM. NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH THE LINE FORECAST TO CLEAR LINCOLN COUNTY BETWEEN 6-7
PM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND MOHAVE
COUNTY WHICH WON`T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

HIGH WIND WARNING PANNING OUT IN THE THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WE HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS AT FORT IRWIN AND
BARSTOW-DAGGETT IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY POSTED UNTIL 11 PM PDT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY KEEPING THE REGION
UNDER A COOL NORTH FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE THOSE WIND PRODUCTS
ALREADY OUT ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE HAVASU. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITHIN AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS SET IN. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR THE RIVER ZONES. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, YET LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TAKES CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST /PERHAPS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SOME WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS ANY MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY AFTER 4 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IMPACTING ALL CORRIDORS THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GET DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH NEAR
BY STORMS SO OPTED FOR A VARIABLE GROUPING IN THE TAF. SOME BLOWING
DUST COULD ALSO BRING A REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THE LOWER VISIBILITY. AFTER THE
STORMS CLEAR WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE
GOING MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 EXPECTED WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE KDAG
AREA AND FAR WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 50KTS.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY WITH DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS. FURTHER NORTH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-15 THROUGH
00Z. SHOWERS EXPAND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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