Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 070030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2015

            May 07     May 08     May 09
00-03UT        4          2          2
03-06UT        4          1          1
06-09UT        3          1          1
09-12UT        3          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2015

              May 07  May 08  May 09
S1 or greater    1%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 06 2015 1149 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2015

              May 07        May 08        May 09
R1-R2           55%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           15%           15%

Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight yet increasing chance for an (R3-Strong) radio blackout, over
the next three days (07-09 May) as more active regions are expected to
rotate around the east limb.



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