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000 FGUS73 KDDC 241858 ESFDDC KSC007-047-055-057-069-075-083-093-119-135-145-165-185-250058- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1258 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY OFFICE HAS RECENTLY IMPLEMENTED LONG RANGE AHPS RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME OF ITS FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 3 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID NOVEMBER 24, 2009 - JANUARY 22, 2010 LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ARKANSAS RIVER COOLIDGE 8.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.1 SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.7 GARDEN CITY 10.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 DODGE CITY 11.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 KINSLEY 12.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 WALNUT CREEK ALEXANDER 4W 31.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 4.0 5.8 9.5 NEKOMA 29.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.9 11.3 14.7 BUCKNER CREEK BURDETT 6W 16.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 7.7 PAWNEE RIVER BURDETT 7WNW 30.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 SANFORD 24.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.7 RATTLESNAKE CREEK MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.7 ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.7 CROOKED CREEK ENGLEWOOD 12W 6.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.5 CIMARRON RIVER FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 MEDICINE LODGE RIVER KIOWA 2NE 10 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.8 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$
