Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 031211
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
051215-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
811 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT
CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF AND RIVER FLOODING WILL DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS AS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE DECREASE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES
INCREASE ESPECIALLY AS VEGETATION BEGINS TO FLOURISH.
OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL AREA FOR RIVER FLOODING BUT THE OVERALL RISK
WILL DECREASE AS STATED ABOVE.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 31ST ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...NO HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN. THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
APRIL.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON THE CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUMMER. THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE
MODEL FORECASTS AND THE CURRENT EL NINO ADVISORY.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

$$



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