Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 020856
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOUR CORNERS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE AZ...MOST OF NM...WRN TX
PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL/SE SD...SW/CNTRL MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE
OVER CNTRL CA AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN -- MOVING EWD.
EWD/SEWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SASKATCHEWAN
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN WRN ONTARIO/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE CNTRL CA
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL
OCCLUDE AS IT MOVE EWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID MS VALLEY...AND SRN
PLAINS. LOW AHEAD OF THE CNTRL CA SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. BOTH OF THIS LOWS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS.

...SOUTHWEST...FOUR CORNERS...SRN PLAINS...
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SE
CO BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SEWD INTO NW TX AND THEN SWWD
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED
WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS W OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS -- I.E. SUSTAINED
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH -- ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE.  RH VALUES THROUGHOUT
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE MID
TEENS. RESULTANT COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
DESPITE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...UNRECEPTIVE FUELS
PRECLUDED EXTENDING THE CRITICAL RISK INTO E-CNTRL AZ/W-CNTRL
NM...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...AND TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

...SRN CA...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGES AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN LOS ANGELES HAVE REPORTED GUSTS FROM 35 TO
40 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DISSOCIATION
BETWEEN THE STRONGEST GUSTS /EARLY MORNING/ AND THE LOWEST RH VALUES
/LATE AFTERNOON/...ENOUGH OVERLAP EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NWLY
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN. LAX-TPH GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 8-9 MB BY
12Z FRIDAY..SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS
COUPLED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND MODERATELY DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...AND NRN WI...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN TIGHT WHICH...WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH.
HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MIN
RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT. PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SE SD...NW/CNTRL
MN MAY SEE RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA HAS NOT MOISTENED FUELS ENOUGH TO DAMPEN THE FIRE THREAT
PLUS THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AND
FINE FUELS. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS S-CNTRL/SE SD AND SW/CNTRL MN WITH ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND A HIGH OFF THE NC/VA COAST WILL PROMOTE SLY WINDS
APPROACHING 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH
RESULTANT RH VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATELY RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

..MOSIER.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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