Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 061040
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOE 4 5...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
640 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWARD AND SPIN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4600 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............75  70  65  65  55  54  57  57  57  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                    SCT SCT SCT
TEMP................60  62  66  71  74  76  78  79  81  82  80  78
RH..................97  94  84  73  64  60  55  52  49  47  51  54
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  S   SW  SW  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   3   3   2   3   4   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   7   10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  9   7   6   6   7   7   8   8   9
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................13  13  11  11  13  13  10  10  10  10  11  13
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  40  40
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   4   7   8   9   14  21  30  28  26  23

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............71  71  71  74  74  74  76  76  76  77  77  77
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................76  74  71  68  66  65  64  63  61  60  60  59
RH..................58  62  68  76  78  81  81  84  90  93  90  93
20 FT WIND DIR......S   SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.2 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  12  12  12  9   8   7   7   6   6   5   5
LVORI...............3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
ADI.................5   7   8   8   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....20  14  6   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............78  78  78  69  69  69  52  52  52  47  47  47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................59  60  63  67  70  73  74  75  77  77  79  78
RH..................96  96  90  78  68  62  57  55  50  50  47  48
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
LVORI...............7   7   6   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................4   5   5   5   8   9   11  12  19  19  19  21
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1   1   2   4   6   8   10  12  15  15  16  17



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150506.TAYLO.01/AKQ


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