Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 041133
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL158_LOST MOUNTAIN RX...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. WITH 20 FOOT WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FINE FUEL
MOISTURE IS RUNNING FROM 8 TO 10 PERCENT FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION OF NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FROM
TIOGA...LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LIKELY STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7100-8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 5 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............14  17  22  28  33  39  42  44  48  52
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  58  62  65  68  69  70  71  71  71
RH..................48  47  41  35  34  35  35  35  34  34
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   10  10  12  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 2.3 5.1 7.4 8.5 8.9 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   5   10  15  17  18  18  18  20  20
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
                    IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0200...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-6300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1100-1400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............55  59  61  61  61  61  61  61  77  77  77  77
WEATHER COV.........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................71  70  68  65  63  60  59  58  58  57  57  57
RH..................35  38  43  50  58  66  72  76  80  83  86  88
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.3 5.4 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....21  21  21  20  18  17  17  17  17  15  13  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0800...THEN 16-25 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 1300...THEN >25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-6400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6000-7600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............77  77  91  91  91  91  91  91  87  87  87  87
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................57  58  58  60  61  63  64  66  66  67  67  67
RH..................88  88  87  85  81  78  75  73  72  71  71  71
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......13  13  13  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.7 6.4 7.6 7.1 6.0 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  14  15  14  12  9   9   10  12  12  10  10
LAL.................3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...ITLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.SGL15.01/CTP



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