Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 011223 AAA
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCKY CREEK WOODLAND...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
723 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 01.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TODAY...THEN AREA WIDE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. A COMBINED TOTAL OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND THIS EVENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 13
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3000
                    FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........36  38  39  41  43  44  50
WEATHER COV.....                SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............64  67  68  71  73  74  74
RH..............43  42  45  47  48  50  50
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10  12  13  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 32 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........57  65  67  69  71  72  73  74  74  74  73  72
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............74  72  70  68  66  65  64  64  63  62  61  61
RH..............51  57  61  68  73  75  75  75  78  81  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..12  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 49 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 32 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........71  70  74  77  80  83  85  87  88  88  88  88
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............60  60  61  63  65  67  69  71  72  72  73  73
RH..............87  87  87  84  81  78  73  68  66  64  62  62
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   10  12  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...PACKETT
REQUESTED BY...SUSAN FARRINGTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150401.ROCKY.01/PAH



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