Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 030752
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 03 2015 - 12Z TUE MAY 05 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION ON SOUTHERLY WINDS INTERSECTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPS OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS IN COLORADO. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO BECOME STATIONARY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND GULF COAST STATES. MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN WIDESPREAD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE OVERWHELMING
MAJORITY OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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