Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 050730
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 05 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 08 2015


DAY 1...

...COLORADO ROCKIES...

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE..ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON TUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE..BUT WARM AIR AS
WELL..ANY THREAT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-INCHES OR MORE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CO.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAY 2...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DROPPING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
CA.  DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN ID AND NORTHWESTERN WY.  THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY HELP SUPPORT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-INCHES OR MORE ACROSS AREAS AS LOW AS 7500 FT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAY 3...

...SIERRA...

SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SIERRA AS AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS CA.  SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW
AS 5000 FT...BUT THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8000 FT WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
8-INCHES OR MORE IS INDICATED.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





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