Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 261706
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015



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