Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 10N120W THEN RESUMES AT 08N125W
TO BEYOND 04N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM
08.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W. E OF 102W...THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS NO IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT
INDICATED VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS N OF 20N. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N111W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NEAR
11N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N140W
AND CUTS THROUGH 25N120W INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW
MEXICO.

A 1031 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 118W. THE AREA
OF TRADES WILL SHRINK WESTWARD...W OF 130W...ON THU AS HIGH PRES
SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL.

THE BIG SWELL EVENT THAT WAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELLS...18-20 SECONDS...IS NOW CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AND WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO...MAINLY S OF CABO CORRIENTES
AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY EARLY FRI BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS
TO THOSE COASTS.

$$
GR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.