Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 261126
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ANY CLOUD COVER SURPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW OF DRY
AIR COMING IN ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL KEEP THOSE CLOUDS
AT BAY...AND WILL ALSO HELP DROP THE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
AIR WILL FAVOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT DIFFERING STRENGTH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH ECMWF AND NAM ON THE STRONGER SIDE. ALTHOUGH
FORCING IS AMPLE...THERE REALLY IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. STILL...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN AND EVEN INCREASE THE
CHANCES JUST A LITTLE BIT. BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT
AS WELL. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY THAT THIS FEATURE IS ROLLING
THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A SMALL RISK FOR SOME THUNDER. BUT FEEL
THE OVERALL CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION YET.

BEHIND THIS...UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
PROVIDE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER IN THESE...
BUT WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE RST/LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT BOTH
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AT THE RST TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HUDSON BAY HIGH SCENARIO TODAY INTO MONDAY KEEPS A SUPPLY OF DRY
AIR COMING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINTS ARE
MIXING OUT INTO THE TEENS...RESULTING IN HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL WI SAND AREAS BOTH TODAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO SEE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. COULD ALSO SEE LOW HUMIDITY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE AND SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER.

THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE FUELS AVAILABLE FOR
FIRE...BUT AT THIS POINT THE GREEN UP IS PROGRESSING NICELY AND
THE GRASSES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING AS THEY
WERE A FEW WEEKS AGO.  CAUTION IS URGED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ
FIRE WEATHER...MW



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