Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS IN THE
WARNING AREA ARE STILL MEETING THRESHOLD AS OF 8PM...WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW
20S FOR RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW 30S ARE NOT
FAR AWAY AND WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO
LET WARNING EXPIRE WITH A NOTATION THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
CRITICAL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
WILL OCCUR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION.
SOME CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ANGLE
TOWARD KROX AS OF 19Z. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND WE EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CU TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
WINDS SWITCHING TO EAST/NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 30 TO 40
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS INLAND. MID TO
UPPER SIXTIES ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND WITH FORTIES RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE. VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS TYPICAL OF SUCH LARGE SYSTEMS AS THIS ONE. HAVE
SIDED WITH THE 12Z NAM12 WHICH HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE WITH THE
ONSET OF THE RAIN AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALIGNED POPS
TO SHOW THE NORTHWARD TREND OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND LIFT INTO
ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
RAIN ON MONDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NEARBY
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LATE AND TUESDAY NIGHT LATE WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SEEING ALL SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FINALLY DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEXT 24 HRS. STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS...CAUSING WINDS TO SWITCH FROM WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS TO BE
GUSTY BEHIND FRONT AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH THIS
EFFECT TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z AS STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT WILL BE
LESS ABLE TO MIX DOWN. WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KTS AFTER
06Z...BUT SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER 14Z TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  51  39  49 /   0   0  90  80
INL  31  65  39  49 /   0   0  80  70
BRD  40  67  46  55 /   0  10  90  60
HYR  36  67  44  57 /   0   0  70  80
ASX  36  55  41  56 /   0   0  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE







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