Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171712
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1212 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE MINNESOTA DNR...HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS KOOCHICHING
AND NRN ST LOUIS COUNTIES TODAY. WARNING IS VALID FROM NOON
THROUGH 800 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOWER 70S...AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN TAKING HOLD ON THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD REGION.

HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS/RH VALUES TODAY IN LINE WITH MIX DOWN VALUES
FROM THE NAM12. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON (22Z) RANGE FROM 9000 FT AT KINL...7000 FT AT
KHIB...AND AROUND 6000 FT AT KBRD/KHYR. THE DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY ALOFT TO REACH THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING RH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20%. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RH FALL
INTO THE LOW TEENS TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN WIND STRENGTH TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER ONTARIO. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO...WILL PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...ANCHORING THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...KEEPING
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS INLAND ON SATURDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHLAND IS POISED TO
HAVE A VERY WET LATTER HALF TO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA...ANOTHER LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
MANITOBA WILL BE DEEPENING AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS TO THE SE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE LOWS WILL
ALL GRADUALLY CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO
REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF AT
LEAST 0.50" TO THE NORTHLAND. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND 1.00". THE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
HEAVIER RAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTHLAND WITH A COUPLE DAY OF COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WITH BREEZY
WNW TO NW FLOW. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT -5 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THIS
TIME. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
CONFIDENT OF ADDING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS AT HIB AND INL UNTIL
NEAR 01Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  35  51  39 /   0   0   0  70
INL  69  31  62  39 /   0   0   0  80
BRD  71  40  65  45 /   0   0  20  80
HYR  71  37  65  44 /   0   0  10  70
ASX  72  35  53  40 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-011.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF






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