Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212333 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM
CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. TODAY THESE SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS WERE LOOKING MUCH MORE CELLULAR...WHICH MEANS THEY WERE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO WE SHOULD BE SEEING GRADUAL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH BUFR MODELS INDICATING A GOOD ICE LAYER...EXPECT
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. STILL SOME GOOD BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME VSBYS BELOW 3/4 OF A MILE AND SOME SMALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS.

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ARROWHEAD UNDER
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW...SO KEPT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. BUT
THE MORE IMPORTANT MUCH DRIER AIR AND MIXING DOWN OF MORE DRY AIR
AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WILL POSSIBLY MAKE FOR SOME
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MIXING LAYER WILL EXTEND TO
AROUND 800 MB WHERE WINDS OF 30 KTS OR MORE AND VERY DRY AIR COULD
MIX DOWN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA OF SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES WITH
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE EAST IN AITKIN AND PINE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WISCONSIN AREAS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THURS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE RIDGE
AXIS/DRIEST AIR OVER MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DLH
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT IS ON TRACK TO BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
20S. THE COMBINATION OF SFC RIDGING AND THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ANOTHER CRITICALLY DRY DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY.
HAVE DECREASED DEW PTS/RH VALUES THURS AS NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AN AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER TO 5 KFT. THE LOWEST RH VALUES AROUND 20%
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/BRAINERD LAKES REGION...INCREASING TO
THE 30-40% RANGE IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD/SUPERIOR NATL
FOREST. NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS
TIME AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT OVER CENTRAL
MN...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND OVER NRN WISCONSIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
THAT TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BROADBRUSH LOWS POPS FOR RA/SN MIX THROUGH FRIDAY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAKENING AFTER 04Z AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH
INTERMITTENT SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. CEILINGS WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BEFORE BECOMING PERSISTENT MVFR AFTER 06Z.
THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND THE STRONGER WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  40  25  46 /  30  10  10   0
INL  22  38  20  42 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  26  44  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  26  41  24  46 /  30  10  10   0
ASX  27  41  26  41 /  50  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...BJT





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