Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230157 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
857 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN NRN IRON COUNTY TO
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE SOUTH SHORE THIS EVENING. OBS AND WEB CAMS IN AND
AROUND THE IRONWOOD/MONTREAL AREA STILL INDICATE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING ANOTHER 3 HOURS OR
SO. SHOULD ONLY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LINGERING CLOUD COVER/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD FAR NRN
WISCONSIN ZONES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS MN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE FOUND IN THE ARROWHEAD...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER IRON COUNTY.

CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE
EXTENDING FROM KINL...SOUTH TO KMZH...TO ALONG THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
BORDER. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS
ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE 20S.
MEANWHILE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPS FROM PREV FCST...BUT MAY STILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE
KBRD-KGPZ AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER TO H85 /5 KFT/. NOT
ANTICIPATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE
FOUND IN AREAS WITH HIGHER RH...OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD/NRN
WISCONSIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION CLEAR AND DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND COULD BRING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
THE PCPN WILL HAVE HARD TIME MAKING INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SINCE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RECOVER FROM THE COLD
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH A STRETCH OF
RELATIVELY SUNNY AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THIS COULD STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE
INVERTED TROUGH FALLS DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO NRN WI WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND SLIDE EWD TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF A 3-4K FT SCT DECK DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO ONLY ADDED FEW/SCT030-040 TO
THE FORECAST TO DLH/HIB/INL AND HYR. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH LIGHT
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15KT THUR AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  43  25  44 /   0   0   0  30
INL  17  40  20  48 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  21  47  30  48 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  23  43  20  52 /  10  10   0  30
ASX  25  41  22  46 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART
AVIATION...BJT





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