Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 302042
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...DRAGGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.  THE
FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY DECENT NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS
A NICE FIELD OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST.  TOGETHER WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO
BE OVERCOME AT THE LOW LEVELS...THIS IS GOING TO LIMIT OUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN CWA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
GETTING FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
FARTHER EAST MAY ONLY GET A TRACE.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING ON WE SHOULD STILL GET BACK INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME PLACES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE MAY DIP TO
AROUND FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A MILD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AIR...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM
THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY EAST TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
PLUNGING FROM 12-14C SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 3-5C BY MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND
DEEP MIXING TAKING PLACE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND
APPROACHING 70 ON TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY AND BE EJECTED NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
STREAM OF MOIST GULF AIR AHEAD OF IT RAISING PWAT VALUES TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR BRD WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS /GENERALLY LESS THAN 12KTS./ TONIGHT A WEAK FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTH0CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE GENERALLY LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO WENT WITH VCSH IN THE RELEVANT TAFS FOR
NOW. LIGHT PRECIP MAY SPREAD FARTHER EAST TO DLH AND HYR...BUT AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES AT
THESE SITES...WITH GENERALLY JUST VIRGA AT THESE SITES TUESDAY MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT
BRD BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  66  45  73 /  10  50   0   0
INL  44  69  40  78 /  70  60   0  10
BRD  45  70  45  78 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  36  65  44  76 /   0  30  10   0
ASX  32  67  42  75 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






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