Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 050538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO KBRD AND
KHYR AFTER END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  57  54  70 /  30  50  50  70
INL  44  65  55  71 /  10  50  60  70
BRD  48  72  60  73 /  60  60  60  70
HYR  47  73  60  74 /  50  40  40  60
ASX  44  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC






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