Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161807 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
107 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING OVERHEAD.
REDREW THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ECHOS LIFTING NORTH OVER MUCH
OF MN EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE IS LIMITING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES FROM REACHING THE GROUND
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 6K FT. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD REGION. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP LATE TODAY WILL AGAIN HAVE TO CONTENT WITH VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN PRIMARILY VIRGA AND LIMITING ANY QPF TO
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE A PASSING
SPRINKLE/VIRGA CAN EXPECT A LOCALIZED WIND GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
WISCONSIN ZONES THIS EVENING...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70 WILL RETURN WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A CORRIDOR
OF VERY DRY AIR WITH RH VALUES IN TEENS TO LOW 20S IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OVER THE NE MINN AND FAR NRN WISCONSIN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MOST
AREAS FRIDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO APPROACHES THE
BORDERLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SATURDAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN COOL AND CLEAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS QUEBEC AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO...AND A DEEPENING LOW IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN MOVING TO THE SE. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THE EAST TO NE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COOL IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...BUT AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL INLAND
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES SE INTO MANITOBA. THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND AND MERGE WITH THE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A SURGE OF HUMID AIR AND RAIN INTO THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS PCPN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE...WAS ABLE TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES BY
ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 0.50" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN
INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO
REGION. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOLER AND CLOUDIER
WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING..AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROF WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE..WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5-10KT..WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NW
AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI OVERNIGHT
AND WASH OUT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. KHIB/KINL SHOULD SEE
SW WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP AFTER 15Z FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IN ONTARIO APPROACHING THE AREA. OTHERWISE..SCT- BKN
6-10 KT FT CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW VERY
LIGHT/BRIEF SHOWERS AROUND. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE ON A SHOWER COMING
OVER ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS EXTREMELY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  37  67  39 /  40   0   0   0
INL  62  31  67  33 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  67  36  70  41 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  65  37  70  38 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  67  37  69  37 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








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