Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 022025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 19Z WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWWD INTO WESTERN ND. A SFC TROF WAS ALSO FOUND IN CENTRAL ND.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING AHEAD OF THIS TROF IN THE VCNTY OF
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF SFC
FGEN WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS
TO REACH NW MN BY 21Z. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND
REACH THE NW CORNER OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 01Z. HOWEVER...IT IS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WHEN THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR THAT
HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. AS THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS DISSOLVES...THE NEXT ROUND WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z AS THE SFC
FRONT MAKES PROGRESS EWD INTO THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SEEN
ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING AS A THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. BY AFTERNOON...THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW WI WITH MAX HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE VIGOROUS...AND BORDER ON SEVERE. SBCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LI/S TO -8C PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
NEAR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS ARE 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND HAVE
ROBUST QPF BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND WHILE I HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THEY WILL ONLY BE ONGOING AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND EXIT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
BACK IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST IS GOING TO
SENT A STRONG...SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A TROUGH OUT WEST REMAINS
WITH WARM AIR STILL BEING FUNNELED IN OUR DIRECTION AND SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY REACH
THE KINL AREA...AND HAVE PUT IN ONLY A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME...WITH NO THUNDER IN ANY OF THE OTHER TAFS...JUST VCSH
GROUPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ALOFT AT 1.5-2 KFT INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS FOR 06Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ADDED LLWS FOR KDLH AND KHIB...AND MAY NEED TO ALSO BE ADDED
FOR KHYR AS WELL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY FOR KHYR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  44  67 /  10  40   0   0
INL  48  73  38  66 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  54  76  44  70 /  30  30   0   0
HYR  53  77  44  70 /  10  60  20   0
ASX  53  80  44  67 /  10  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE






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