Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232340 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME PCPN. MAY
INITIALLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW... BUT ANY MIXTURE WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN ON FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HEIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE INCREASING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND
BRINGS MORE MILD PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION. WE/LL SEE SOME PCPN
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES BY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RIDGING AND A BIT OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... SO THINGS
WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER
WITH THE NEXT PCPN CHANCE... WHICH LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SEE MORE PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS... ALTHOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN... SO PCPN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NW ONTARIO TO WISCONSIN
WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
MOST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
KDLH COULD CAUSE THE CIGS AND VSBYS AT KDLH TO LOWER TO IFR BY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  43  32  43 /  10  50  40  20
INL  20  49  32  51 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  32  47  35  52 /  50  70  40  20
HYR  23  50  32  51 /  10  50  40  20
ASX  22  47  32  44 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS MPX
LONG TERM...NWS MPX
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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