Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FGUS73 KDLH 051045
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-
051-099-113-129-121800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
445 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE            10.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY            9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN              12.0   15.0   18.0 :   7   55   <5   30   <5    7
FORT RIPLEY         10.0   12.5   26.0 :   7   46   <5   18   <5   <5
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON             10.5   11.0   13.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE              3.1    3.2    3.6    3.9    4.6    5.7    6.4
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY             4.7    4.9    5.5    6.1    7.1    8.0    8.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN                4.5    4.7    6.3    7.5    9.2   11.5   12.6
FORT RIPLEY           4.6    4.8    5.3    6.6    7.5    9.6   10.5
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON               4.0    4.6    5.1    5.9    7.1    8.1    9.0

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE              2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN                1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
FORT RIPLEY           3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON               3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL IN MINNESOTA.  AT THE ONSET OF
WINTER...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI BASIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
BASIN IS ALSO LOW WITH REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM BRAINERD TO CASS
LAKE.  WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL WITH
NOVEMBER AND FEBRUARY BEING NEARLY 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FROST DEPTHS DOVE DEEP IN NOVEMBER THEN SLOWED DURING DECEMBER AND
JANUARY BUT HAVE INCREASED IN DEPTH IN FEBRUARY.  SNOW COVERED AREAS
HAVE AROUND 3 FEET OF FROST WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHEN CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE FACTORS...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING ARE LOW.   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND BASINS DRAINING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE A
BELOW NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DLH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT
MN DNR LOCATIONS...REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF MARCH.

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.