Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 241619
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR LINSKOG...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1119 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1055 CDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT EAST WINDS
AT THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 5-8 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE AFTER AROUND 1
PM...AND SOME WEAK GUSTINESS COULD DEVELOP WITH A FEW GUSTS UP IN
THE 13-14 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 37-39 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE BURN SITE ARE MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
THE BURN SITE WILL LIE WITHIN A VERY STRONG RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MARINE LAYER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE
SOUTHEAST..AND MUCH DRIER AIR JUST A FEW MILES INLAND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR INSTANCE..AT 11 AM RH VALUES WERE NEAR 70 PERCENT
AT THE HARBOR IN GRAND MARAIS..BUT ONLY 32 PERCENT AT THE COOK
COUNTY (DEVILS TRACK) AIRPORT A FEW MILES INLAND AND UP THE HILL.
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE MARINE
SOURCE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..WE BELIEVE THAT THE HUMIDITY
WILL TEND TOWARD THE HIGHER PART OF THIS RANGE AT THE BURN SITE
THROUGH 1800..ALTHOUGH RH SHOULD DECREASE SOME INTO THE 50-55
PERCENT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON.

WE CAN UPDATE THIS FORECAST BASED ON A CURRENT OBSERVATION AFTER
THE CREW GETS ON SITE..PER OUR PHONE CONVERSATION. PLEASE CALL IF
THAT IS NEEDED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 5 TO 8 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH AFTER 1 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10100) INCREASING TO FAIR (28900).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
TEMP............36  37  37  38  38  38  38  36  34
RH..............64  63  59  58  54  52  53  58  60
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.12  13  14  15  15  15  15  15  14

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1450 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19650).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............33     32     31     30     30     29
RH..............66     73     76     76     76     76
20 FT WIND DIR..E      E      E      E      E      E
20 FT WIND SPD..7      7      7      7      8      9
20 FT WIND GUST.14     14     14     14     16     17

$$
FORECASTER...DAN
REQUESTED BY...JOHN NORTON-JENSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150424.LINSK.01/DLH





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