Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 271518
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR PLOUFF CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1018 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH AND PASS THE BURN SITE SOMETIME AFTER
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE WIND WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO THE SE DURING LATTER
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS, THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OPPOSITE TO
THE WINDS ONLY A THOUSAND FEET UP OR SO. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
WHERE THE SURFACE WIND IS FROM THE SE, WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
FROM THE NNW. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE COOLING THAT WILL COME FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD CAUSE THE MIXING AND SMOKE DISPERSION LEVELS TO DECREASE
AND BECOME RELATIVELY POOR BY THIS EVENING.

IF THE LAKE BREEZE DOES NOT REACH THE BURN SITE UNTIL THIS
EVENING, THEN IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
TODAY THAN FORECAST AND WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 4 TO 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3 TO
                    4 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (29000) INCREASING TO GOOD (35900) EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    (12500) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
TEMP............54     58     58     53
RH..............37     33     29     37
20 FT WIND DIR..NNW    NNW    SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5      4      3      4
20 FT WIND GUST.6      5             5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 2
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 2 TO 4 MPH LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............52     44     39     37     36     36
RH..............37     52     65     71     79     85
20 FT WIND DIR..S      S      S      NW     W      NW
20 FT WIND SPD..4      4      2      1      1      3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             2      2      5

$$
FORECASTER...GEOFF
REQUESTED BY...KEN GUITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150427.PLOUF.01/DLH






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