Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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