Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST OK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
UPDATE. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATED TAF DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION AS 00Z NAM CAME IN WITH UNREALISTIC DEW
POINTS...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z VALUES HAVE COME DOWN A TAD. A SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SASK/MB PROVINCIAL LINE WILL DRIFT EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BY MID DAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR IMPACTS ON FIRE WEATHER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG A ROLLA TO DICKINSON LINE
BY MID DAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTN. 00Z NAM WAS MORE BULLISH WITH DEW
POINTS AND RESULTANT SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE WHEREAS THE DRIER GFS YIELDED ABOUT 500 J/KG TO 750 J/KG.
06Z NAM VALUES HAVE CAME DOWN A BIT. WITH 50 DEG DEWPOINTS STILL
WELL SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT DEW POINTS ALONG
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MAY GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT THAT COULD HELP KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY GOING...BUT OVERALL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. WILL HOLD
ON TO INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AFT COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT EXPECTED ONLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFT 06Z.

TOMORROW...SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF CWA BY 12Z
SUN...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER
AIR...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 70 ON MONDAY AND CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP
FROM COLORADO MIDWEEK. BEFORE THAT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY AND BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL WRAP UP BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE THE DRY INTRUSION WILL END UP...BUT OVERALL THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME PERIOD LOOKS VERY WET...SO KEPT HIGH POPS GOING.
SOME WRAP AROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
IS FASTER ON DRYING US OUT THAN THE GFS. TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
HIGHS...AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS WHERE READINGS COULD STAY
IN THE 50S UNTIL WE GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING LATE
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF ON
STATION TS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND WILL ONLY MENTION AS VCTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BELOW 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE EXTREME WITH DRY
FUELS. UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...FROM
18Z TO 01Z. THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE A BIT MORE
MARGINAL ON THE WIND...BUT AT LEAST IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...JR






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