Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASK
WITH A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. COLD FRONT WAS OVER
EASTERN MT. PRECIP WAS ORIENTATED ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS. TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY. WILL CHECK WINDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY HUMIDITY VALUES (SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEARLY 700MB AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (ANTICIPATE 20-30MPH WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST AREAS...AND
NEAR 80F JUST AHEAD OF WHERE THE SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED AT PEAK
HEATING (LIKELY THE VALLEY).

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS. 850MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO THE DVL BASIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING LAGGING BEHIND. AS THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
CATCHES UP WITH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE MESOSCALE FORCING.
GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO...ANTICIPATE ISOLD-SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY. ADJUSTED POPS TO
THIS THINKING...WITH QPF TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH RETURN FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISOLD-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FEATURE DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ORDER
FOR THIS TO OCCUR MODELS INDICATE DEW POINT VALUES NEAR 50F. NOT
SURE THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT DID KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. TEMPS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING TO
THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME SHOWERS COULD
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER WC MN.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
CURRENTLY INDICATED SCENARIO...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...WOULD BRING AN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CIGS (MAINLY CIRRUS) INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY (UP TO @26 KNOTS). A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE VALLEY AND INTO MINNESOTA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
RRV WESTWARD. VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 MPH...AND GUSTING TO OVER 30
MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST IN THE
RRV...DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT...LOCALLY LOWER. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT START. BY
MID-AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




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