Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
FIRST 3 DAYS...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. PREFER THE GFS THAT
HAS LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN OUR DRY ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASING A BIT LATE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WAA...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...925MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT AND S/SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD SUSTAIN AROUND 22-24KT IN THE VALLEY
BY AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID
80S. MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY A LIMITING
FACTOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...AND THIS WILL HINGE ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN POOL
ALONG BOUNDARY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL AND THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME
MORNING CONVECTION IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 70
FOR MOST AREAS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING. IT COULD BE ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WHERE IT DOES NOT RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE NW.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...LARGE WEATHER CHANGES APPEAR LIKELY
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONSOLIDATING
INTO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO WORK WITH. 500 MB
UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE DAKOTAS RIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LEADING TO BEST
THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE DURING THE LATE WED INTO THURS TIME
FRAME WITH MORE DEFORMATION TYPE SHOWERY ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY. THIS
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN UPDATED GRIDS. TEMPS TO CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THURS BEFORE LOWERING TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES TO
END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

JUST SOME CIRRUS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR S TO
SSW WINDS TO PICK UP AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND THE ND TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED SO NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SEEN AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. ALSO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE UNDER 20
PERCENT SAT AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT.  WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SAT FROM
11 AM TO 8PM CDT. COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND FIRE
WEATHER AGENCIES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES






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