Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. PATTERN FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SAT AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY. CONCURRENTLY FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BECOME INCORPORATED, AND MOVE OUT AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM
AMPLIFICATION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CURRENTLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE SOME WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
OVER AN INCH SAT NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET.
SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FOR SAT NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN
SASK/MAN BORDER WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAN. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF LAKE
MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME WITH A STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 500MB TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE AREA IN
NW TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEPENDING WESTERN EXTENT OF VORT LOBE
ROTATING BACK TO THE AREA MID WEEK. NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEST CHANCES EAST IN THE MN PINES...FOR A
RAIN...MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE 2C TO 6C DEGREES FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY FRONT WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOMORROW. COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



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