Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




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