Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 300437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES TOMORROW.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASING...AND IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH ABOUT 30-35KT TO
MIX BY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP
TO AROUND 800MB BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO AROUND 80 ON THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH +20C AT 925MB. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BETWEEN 21-00Z...AND
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
PWATS ARE PROGGED NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE FRONT...SO SOME AREAS
SHOULD GET AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR PERHAPS A BIT MORE
NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS PROBABLY AROUND 0.10.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

ON FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN AREAS AROUND 12Z.
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S...PERHAPS
EVEN UPPER 70S ON THE VALLEY FLOOR ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF A SFC
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN SOUTHEAST ND BY 00Z
SUNDAY. IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN GET TO AROUND 50...THEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
HAIL/MARGINAL WIND REPORTS...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IT
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THEN
EASTERN CANADA THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SPLIT FLOW WITH NORTHERN STREAM
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON SAT NIGHT. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND MON. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED
ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND DECREASED ZERO TO SIX DEGREES FOR
WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SOME CIRRUS TO DRIFT OVER THE FA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD APPROACH KDVL BY 00Z FRI AND KGFK
BY 03Z FRI. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW FROM NOON UNTIL 7PM
FOR E ND AND RRV COUNTIES OF MN WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OUR DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE REGION
WITH LOW RHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HUMIDITIES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH MAX RHS IN THE 60S. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE WINDS SWITCHING
TO THE WEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MIX OUT AND DOWN TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. RAPID FIRE GROWTH CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY FIRES THAT IGNITE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...JK






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