Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 270822
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
322 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

DRY AND MILD THIS WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AND COMPLEX BLOCKING IS IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF CANADA...
THE CENTRAL AND NRN CONUS...AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WESTERLIES
ADVANCING EWD FM THE PAC WL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK FROM
WEST TO EAST. BUT THEY PROBABLY WON/T REACH THE FCST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...SO THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WL BE SPENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BLOCK.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS LONG AS
THE BLOCK ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ANY RAIN AT ALL. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THAN RECENT PATTERNS. BUT
IT IS ALSO PRETTY FAR OUT INTO THE MODEL RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT
ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LIMITED.

THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO MODESTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY...YET ALLOW READINGS
TO FALL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SOME MOISTURE ROTG ARND WRN FLANK OF UPR LOW NR NEW ENGLAND WL
BRUSH THROUGH ERN WI AT TIMES TDA...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF HIGH
AND MIDDLE CLDS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MID-DAY CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS. WEAKENING SHRTWV WL BE APPROACHING FM THE W TUE AFTN.
THAT SHOULD LEAD TO FEW MORE CLDS THAN TDA IN THE WEST. BUT PCPN
WITH THE FEATURE WL PROBABLY WIPE-OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA.
STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUED TO BRING A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATED NO QPF IN
THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE STATE A CUT-OFF SYSTEM
WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE SOUTH...BUT QPF WITH THIS
CUT-OFF REMAINED EAST OF WISCONSIN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE THEN MOVES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH SOME MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH VERY FAVORABLE FLYING WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ERN WI MID-DAY TDA AS CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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