Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 180400
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.