Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 140809
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND CONVERGING UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE EAST.  THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESIDES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE AIRMASS ITSELF IS VERY DRY WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  EVEN THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS SAW
DEWPOINTS CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA IN THIS AIRMASS...SHOULD NOT HAVE THE KIND OF MECHANICAL
MIXING THIS REGION SAW YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MIXING UP TO
800-750MB...WHICH SUPPORTS DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TEENS UP
NORTH.  COMBINED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS.  ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE THIN CIRRUS INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  OTHERWISE QUIET...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE REGION AND BECOME
THICKER...WHICH WILL LEAD TO FILTERED SUNSHINE.  THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CAUSE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME RELATIVELY STRONGER THAN TODAYS EXPECTED
SPEEDS.  THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTURE SOME...BUT STILL WENT WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE...WHICH PLACES RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
NO REPRIEVE FROM ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE BONE DRY...THUS REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
RAIN DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON
THURSDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VERY DRY SOUNDINGS ALTHOUGH
NOT AS DRY AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUNDINGS. DID LOWER DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES MOST PLACES AS A STARTING POINT. WEAK
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS DO SHOW MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS
FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH
500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHILE RAISING MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOST DAYS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





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