Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 250829
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT
WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AND COMPLEX BLOCKING IS IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF NOAM AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN VERY SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
NEXT WEEK. AS LONG AS THE BLOCKING ENCOMPASSES OUR AREA...IT WILL
DEFLECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO OUR S.

SOME SCT VERY LGT PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT AMNTS WL BE
MEAGER AT BEST...AND PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A WEEK AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT 2/3 OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE AIR MASS PRESENTLY ACRS THE AREA
ORIGINATED IN CANADA...AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY COOL NELY FLOW
TODAY. THEN THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CYCLONE HEADING EWD FM THE PLAINS WILL TRACK ACRS SRN IL
TODAY...DEFLECTED TO THE S OF THE AREA BY THE BLOCK. SOME LGT PCPN
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WAS ABLE TO WORK INTO THE FAR SWRN/SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA YDA EVENING...BUT INCRG ELY FLOW WAS FEEDING
DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
FORCING WAS RESULTING IN A DISSIPATION OF THE PCPN. AFTER ANY
LINGERING PCPN ENDS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LINGERING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLDS
WL ALSO DISSIPATE FM NE-SE...WITH CLR SKIES EXPECTED ACRS THE
AREA BY LATE TDA.

ANOTHER CLD DECK WAS OVER ERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...IN THE WRN
FLANK OF CLOSED UPR LOW OVER MAINE. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWED RH
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER INCRG ACRS THE FCST AREA FM THE NE LATE
TNGT/SUN...PRESUMABLY AS THE ON/QE CLD DECK SHIFTS SWWD. THE 00Z
ECMWF...HOWEVER...WAS LEAST IN FAVOR OF THIS IDEA. STLT LOOP
SHOWED NO SWWD MVMT OF THE CLDS YET...SO SIDED WITH THE EURO AND
LEFT THE CLDS OUT OF THE FCST.

STUCK CLOSE TO BLEND OF TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS
TDA/TNGT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CONDITIONS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
AND WARMER.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT...MODELS WERE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THE 00Z GFS SWUNG ONE
SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION AROUND TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
AREA PASSED TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING NO MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM-NH DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH THAT IT BROUGHT SOUTHEAST...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WISCONSIN. THE 00Z
ECMWF HAD A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION...FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
U.S. PLAINS...THAT IT BROUGHT INTO THE AREA. IT ALSO DEVELOPED A
CLOSED CIRCULATION...OVER WISCONSIN...AS THE TROUGH AXIS WAS MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. THE BLENDED SOLUTION LEFT SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS RETURN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG WITH
GENERALLY GOOD FLYING WEATHER. THE ONE WEATHER FACTOR THAT COULD
BE OF CONCERN TO SOME AVIATION INTERESTS IS THE GUSTY NE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E-C WI TDA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







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