Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 250348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM IS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BAY. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS WERE SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS
OF HIGHER QPF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ONE
WAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EAST-WEST BAND OF RAIN SET UP.
THE SECOND AREA OF HIGHER QPF WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
THIS SEEMED REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MOVEMENT
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS WOULD LEAVE A MINIMUM IN RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END OR DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A LITTLE SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN ACROSS
THE NORTH BEFORE ENDING.

INCREASING EAST WINDS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF LOW HUMIDITY READINGS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DEW POINT READINGS IN THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST A WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE WETTEST MODEL PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THROUGH DESERVES TO BE NOTED. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY PUT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND AJUST FUTURE
FORECASTS AS NEEDED. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM WOULD ONLY
PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET SOLIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY FRIDAY...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM





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