Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 062342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
642 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DENSE FOG ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WAS WANING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEST OF THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY WEST AND OF THE FOX VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DENSE
FOG MOVED INTO MANITOWOC AND TWO RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG SHOULD
CONTINUE AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY DUE TO MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ON THE BAY.

A WARM DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BASED ON SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FRO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT THEN BECOME COOLER THAN
USUAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF FOG OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THINKING FOR THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE
INLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  NOT CONFIDENT WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR OR HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER VSBYS/CIGS WILL REACH.
TRENDED OPTIMISTICALLY AT GRB/ATW AS A RESULT.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL DRY
UP BEFORE REACHIN THAT CORRIDOR.  THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC






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