Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 300355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME UNSTABLE AIR
IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CUMULUS POPPING AROUND 5K FT...AS
WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. DESPITE THESE
DECENT DYNAMICS MOISTURE IS AT A PREMIUM AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DRY LOW LEVELS THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT THAT GREAT...WITH VIRGA OR SPRINKLES BEING A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AS THE MAIN THREAT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND BUT
NOT REMOVE IT ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLAY. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50 WARRANT THE
CONTINUED INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

925 TO 850 RH PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THESE
CLOUDS ADVECT IN SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THESE CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND CLEARS OUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MIXING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 800 MB...WHICH
WHEN MIXED TO THE SURFACE YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS OF 60 TO 65 DEGREES
AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF...LFQ OF A 60-70 KT JET STREAK AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD HOLD BACK PCPN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THROUGH ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM PLAUSIBLE OVER NC/C WI DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER
MONDAY...AND RESIDE NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY
C/EC WI.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURE SHOULD
SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET
WILL MOVE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM





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