Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 221705
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
PLACES OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SIGNIFICANT DRYING CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ADVANCES SOUTH.  EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST TODAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE /CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MN/ MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  MOST OF THE MN COUNTIES
WILL BE CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEST CENTRAL WI MAY SEE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...ESPECIALLY FROM
LADYSMITH TO EAU CLAIRE.

DEEP MIXING ABOVE 800MB IS LIKELY...WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 EXPECTED TODAY FROM MORRIS TOWARD ALBERT LEA...WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER WINDS TO THE EAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY EVENING
AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS QUITE PLEASANT WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE MUCH
LESS WIND (5-10 MPH) ON THURSDAY OVER WHAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE LOWERING INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FINE WEATHER WILL FADE AWAY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RATHER WIDESPREAD DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...BEGAN TO
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
WAVE THEN BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
RATHER INTENSE ON TWO UPPER LOWS BEING JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF US BY TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY WET SOLUTION WITH A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN...KEEP THE TWO SYSTEMS
FURTHER APART WITH ONE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE AN OPEN WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS WOULD YIELD MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS BEING MORE SPOTTY. HENCE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND EVEN THIS COULD BE TOO MUCH
IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE CORRECT.

NOTHING TOO CRITICAL IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THE COLDEST MORNING
WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. LOWS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
BE AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAINING 10 MPH
OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR OVERALL...WITH SOME CIGS 35-4500
FEET INTO WESTERN WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH 01Z THU.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-15 KT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS E-NE 5-10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ANOTHER COUNTRY TO THE EAST WITH
HUMIDITY DROPPING OFF A LITTLE MORE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS WILL DIMINISHIHG THIS EVENING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047>049-
     054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
FIRE WEATHER...DWE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.