Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURE TREND.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY 30 TO
35 ELSEWHERE. WE DID MANAGE TO MIX DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY.

SUNSHINE WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN FOR MONDAY.  PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 65 TO 70 OVER MN AREA
AND THE LOW TO MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS TO 850 MB
PER BUFKIT SOUNDING FORECAST. THIS WILL LOWER HUMIDITY TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED SPRING GREEN
UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION MARK THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE WORK WEEK STARTS OF ON A PLEASANT NOTE...WITH MONDAY FEATURING
MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE STILL APPEAR MEAGER...SO 20-30 POPS ARE SUFFICIENT.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO
+15C ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE
20-30 POPS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
INDICATING A STRONGER FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR/SKC THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NE WINDS THIS EVE BECOME
LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
WINDS THEN PICK UP TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NW TMRW AFTN AND
EVE.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS BECOMING S.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC


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