Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 020625
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC



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